The election and the electoral college

Tomorrow is election day, and those who haven't been following it closely may have the impression that the race is close and unpredictable.  This isn't quite true: it will be close, but Barack Obama will almost certainly be re-elected.

The popular vote may be evenly split, but the distribution of votes between states happens to mean that Obama has more "safe" votes wrapped up than Mitt Romney.  To make the election close, Romney needs to win Ohio, the closest of the large states.  Pennsylvania and Florida are the other large, close states: Obama is sure to win PA, and while FL is still uncertain, it seems very unlikely that Romney will win OH but not FL (this would also result in an Obama victory).  Obama has had a persistent lead in opinion polls in OH, which is a major reason why most analysts (including myself) predict that he will win the election.

If Romney does manage to win OH, the states that are likely to determine the election are Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia.  A candidate winning three of those would win; if split 2-2, the winner of VA would win.  I can easily see Romney winning VA+1, but without OH it will be to no avail.

Of course, other eventualities are not impossible, just unlikely.  Romney could lose OH but pick up the other four plus one of the states expected to go to Obama, such as Wisconsin.  Obama could pick up FL or North Carolina to make up for losing Ohio.  But I really think that if there is a large enough swing (or, in Obama's case, a swing from what is expected back towards 2008 results), the relevant candidate will have already won through one of the above combinations.